Following Tesla's underwhelming quarter, attention in the tech industry shifts to the Magnificent Seven. Tesla's shares have plunged more than 26% in 2024, standing in stark contrast to the ascent of other tech behemoths like Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Apple, and Nvidia. As Microsoft and Alphabet prepare to report earnings this Tuesday, followed by Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Apple on Thursday, the market eagerly anticipates how these titans will weather the current economic climate.
Excluding Tesla, the Magnificent Seven is projected to report a robust 53.7% fourth-quarter earnings growth. This dwarfs the expected 10.5% earnings decline projected for S&P 500 companies minus these six tech giants. With their combined market capitalization hovering around $12 trillion, the Magnificent Seven wield significant influence over the market's dynamics.
Investors approach the tech elite cautiously as they face a higher bar in 2024. While the market experienced a rally in 2023, uncertainties loom over the sustainability of the blockbuster gains witnessed. The Magnificent Seven, revered as a defensive play during economic turbulence last year, may encounter challenges, especially if the Federal Reserve deviates from the expected rate cuts.
Amidst the optimism and aspirations embedded in their valuations, the key lies in addressing the limitations of infinite top-line growth, particularly in the realm of artificial intelligence. Shelby McFaddin, an investment analyst at Motley Fool Asset Management, emphasizes the importance of scrutinizing cash flow and understanding the practicalities behind ambitious AI endeavors.
Despite the S&P 500, Dow industrials, and Nasdaq 100 reaching all-time highs in 2024, the Russell 2000 index, tracking US small-cap stocks, lags with a 2.4% decline for the year. The defensive status of the Magnificent Seven becomes crucial, as their combined market cap surpasses 65% of the Russell 2000's total.
Some investors argue that the Magnificent Seven could continue their dominance, serving as a defensive play even if the Federal Reserve deviates from the anticipated rate cuts. Their appeal during turbulent times, such as the regional banking crisis, stems from solid balance sheets and a perceived dependability due to their involvement in artificial intelligence.
As the Magnificent Seven confront the challenges ahead, the tech sector finds itself at a critical juncture. Investors and stakeholders must closely observe how these industry giants navigate hurdles, particularly in the aftermath of Tesla's setbacks. Understanding the trajectory of the tech industry in the coming months hinges on decoding the strategies and responses of these formidable players.
